Triangle and the Northern Lakes Duck Migration Forecast

Where Triangle and the Northern Lakes is

Triangle and the Northern Lakes is drawn from 12 counties in North Carolina: Alamance, Caswell, Chatham, Durham, Franklin, Granville, Lee, Orange, Person, Vance, Wake and Warren. Those are the counties its shape on the DuckCast map is built from, so a hunter in any of them reads this region’s score.

Public ground with waterfowl hunting

• Butner-Falls of Neuse Game Land (Durham, Granville and Wake counties): Posted waterfowl impoundments with green-tree reservoirs and flooded grain at Falls Lake; ring-necked duck, green-winged teal, wood duck and mallard.
• Jordan Game Land (Chatham, Durham, Orange and Wake counties): Green-tree reservoirs and flooded grain at Jordan Lake; mallard and wood duck.
• R. Wayne Bailey-Caswell Game Land (Caswell County): Flooded milo and millet; NCWRC lists wood duck.
• Harris Game Land (Chatham, Harnett and Wake counties)
• Mayo Game Land (Person County)

Seasons, permits, draws and open days change from year to year, so check the state wildlife agency’s rules, linked below, before you go.

When Triangle and the Northern Lakes peaks

DuckCast’s season model puts the green-winged teal peak here around late December. The timing follows the statewide curve; what differs here is how many birds the model expects, below. That is a modelled typical curve, not a prediction for any single year. The actual push depends on cold fronts and freeze-up upstream, which is what the daily score tracks. Always confirm season dates with the state wildlife agency, linked below.

Which birds the model expects in Triangle and the Northern Lakes

In DuckCast’s season model, the species that can score highest in Triangle and the Northern Lakes are wood ducks, green-winged teal and mallards. Against the state as a whole, it expects more mallards in Triangle and the Northern Lakes and fewer scoters, snow geese, pintails, black ducks, wigeon, gadwall, green-winged teal, blue-winged teal and wood ducks.

Those weights come from harvest records, survey counts and the kind of water, not from a count taken here each season. They cap how high each species’ score can climb; the weather still has to bring the birds.

What DuckCast watches upstream of Triangle and the Northern Lakes

4 upstream stations feed this region's freeze line, nearest first: Lynchburg, VA, about 95 miles north, Hog Island, VA, about 140 miles northeast, Fredericksburg, VA, about 170 miles northeast and Susquehanna Flats, MD, about 280 miles northeast. When those stations ice over, the score here starts climbing before anything changes in the local sky.

Radar over Triangle and the Northern Lakes

Each morning DuckCast reads the night’s NEXRAD data from KRAX, the National Weather Service radar at Raleigh, about 35 miles southeast of the region’s weather point. That is close enough for the radar to sample the air over the region itself. Radar sees every bird in the air, not only ducks, so it confirms or questions the score rather than moving it.

Locations stay generalized

Hunter reports for Triangle and the Northern Lakes are always shown at the region level. DuckCast never collects or displays exact coordinates, so filing a report here never burns a spot.