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Mississippi Delta

Helena up through Crowley's Ridge and the river itself. Big-river birds trading between sandbars, oxbows and cut grain.

4.5

Stable / Staging

Stable Birds / Staging

Low confidence↑ +0.6 last 24hPintails 4.8

Snow Geese score, conditions as of Tue, Nov 3, 9:00 PM

Mississippi Delta

4.5

Steady temps

Legal light 5:55 AMSunrise 6:25 AMSunset 5:08 PM🌗 Last quarter · 40%

5AM12SSE · 67°
6AM12SSE · 68°
7AM14SSE · 68°
8AM18SSE · 68°
9AM18SSE · 69°
10AM17SSE · 70°
11AM19SSE · 71°
7.8Decoy score · WorkableWorking wind: 15 mph through the morning · Low overcast keeps birds low and honest · Gusts to 40: decoys will look wrong on open water

Best window: Legal light (5:55 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

Temperatures falling about 12°F over the next 48 hours

  • Dry fall: birds concentrated on remaining water

Season dates · November 21-29, 2026, then December 10-23, 2026, then December 26, 2026 to January 31, 2027.

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with Arkansas Game and Fish.

Flooded fields: OpenTimber and sloughs: OpenRivers and reservoirs: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last 6 days, counting the next 2 at half (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Dry fall: birds concentrated on remaining water (97% of Arkansas in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Temperatures falling about 12°F over the next 48 hours
  • Rice harvest roughly 100% complete, heavy field feed available

Fair

Temperatures falling about 12°F over the next 48 hours. Rice harvest roughly 100% complete, heavy field feed available. Strongest window: Tue into Wed.

Snow Geese
4.5Tue33.8Wed4

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend20% weight
6.4

Temps falling ~12°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed17% weight
4.0

NW winds to 11 mph across 7 of the next 48h

Freeze north of region15% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream9% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding12% weight
5.2

97% of the state in drought: less water, and birds stacked on what is left

Season timing17% weight
3.4

Shoulder of the migration window

Crop harvest / field feed10% weight
9.8

Rice ~100%, beans ~91% harvested (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports0% weight
5.0

No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

67°Fnow
SSW 8 mphwind
↓ 11°next 24h, falling
DayHi / LoWindSnow
TueNov 375° / 66°SSE 19 mph
WedNov 466° / 53°WNW 11 mph
ThuNov 569° / 50°WSW 5 mph
FriNov 669° / 52°NNE 12 mph
SatNov 756° / 46°NNE 11 mph
SunNov 857° / 43°NNE 13 mph
MonNov 961° / 44°NNE 8 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.