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Arkansas River Valley

Dardanelle and the Holla Bend country. A narrower corridor than the delta, but the river pool holds ducks when small water locks up.

4.3

Stable / Staging

Stable Birds / Staging

Moderate confidence↑ +0.2 last 24hPintails 5.0

Mallards score, conditions as of Tue, Nov 3, 9:00 PM

Arkansas River Valley

4.3

Falling 6° vs yesterday

Legal light 6:05 AMSunrise 6:35 AMSunset 5:17 PM🌗 Last quarter · 40%

5AM3SSE · 70°
6AM13SSE · 70°
7AM19SSE · 69°
8AM12SSE · 69°
9AM7SW · 69°
10AM8S · 69°
11AM9S · 70°
6.9Decoy score · WorkableWorking wind: 10 mph through the morning · Low overcast keeps birds low and honest · Gusts to 41: decoys will look wrong on open water

Best window: Legal light (6:05 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

Temperatures falling about 14°F over the next 48 hours

  • Dry fall: birds concentrated on remaining water

Season dates · November 21-29, 2026, then December 10-23, 2026, then December 26, 2026 to January 31, 2027.

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with Arkansas Game and Fish.

Flooded fields: OpenTimber and sloughs: OpenRivers and reservoirs: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last 6 days, counting the next 2 at half (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Dry fall: birds concentrated on remaining water (97% of Arkansas in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Temperatures falling about 14°F over the next 48 hours
  • Rice harvest roughly 100% complete, heavy field feed available

Fair

Temperatures falling about 14°F over the next 48 hours. Rice harvest roughly 100% complete, heavy field feed available. Strongest window: Tue into Wed.

Mallards
4.3Tue33.4Wed4

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend20% weight
7.0

Temps falling ~14°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed17% weight
4.3

NW winds to 11 mph across 8 of the next 48h

Freeze north of region14% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream9% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding12% weight
5.2

97% of the state in drought: less water, and birds stacked on what is left

Season timing17% weight
2.3

Outside the main migration window

Crop harvest / field feed10% weight
9.8

Rice ~100%, beans ~91% harvested (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports0% weight
5.0

No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

61°Fnow
WSW 4 mphwind
↓ 7°next 24h, falling
DayHi / LoWindSnow
TueNov 372° / 57°S 19 mph
WedNov 464° / 50°W 11 mph
ThuNov 569° / 47°W 4 mph
FriNov 671° / 51°NNE 6 mph
SatNov 762° / 45°ENE 7 mph
SunNov 861° / 43°NE 6 mph
MonNov 964° / 39°N 3 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.