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East Central Lakes

Clinton, Melvern, Pomona and John Redmond, with the Marais des Cygnes bottoms running east to the Missouri line. Reservoir roosts and creek-bottom feeds.

3.3

Stable / Staging

Stable Birds / Staging

High confidence +0.2 last 24hMallards 3.1

Pintails score, conditions as of Tue, Sep 15, 1:00 PM

East Central Lakes

2.8

Steady temps

Legal light 6:34 AMSunrise 7:04 AMSunset 7:30 PM🌒 Waxing crescent · 23%

5AM12E · 72°
6AM8ENE · 72°
7AM9E · 71°
8AM11ESE · 72°
9AM11ESE · 75°
10AM7ESE · 78°
11AM8ESE · 82°
7.1Decoy score · WorkableMidweek rest: birds have settled since the weekend crowds

Best window: Legal light (6:34 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

No strong migration triggers in the current data

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with Kansas Wildlife and Parks.

Playas and sheet water: OpenMarsh and creek bottoms: OpenReservoirs and river: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last two weeks (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Water on the landscape is in decent shape (0% of Kansas in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • No strong migration triggers in the current data

Poor

No strong migration triggers in the current data. Strongest window: Wed into Thu.

Pintails
2.5Tue152.8Wed162.6Thu172.6Fri182.8Sat194.2Sun203.5Mon212.7Tue222.7Wed234.9Thu242.8Fri253.5Sat263.6Sun273.4Mon28

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend16% weight
2.6

Temps falling ~1°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed14% weight
4.0

Light or variable winds

Freeze north of region16% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream10% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding10% weight
9.0

Waters open, birds can stay and feed

Season timing14% weight
2.2

Outside the main migration window

Crop harvest / field feed8% weight
1.1

Corn ~21%, beans ~1% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports12% weight
5.0

No recent hunter reports in this region

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

90°Fnow
W 7 mphwind
0°next 24h, steady
DayHi / LoWindSnow
TueSep 1594° / 76°SSW 18 mph
WedSep 1697° / 71°SE 13 mph
ThuSep 1796° / 74°S 13 mph
FriSep 1898° / 75°S 15 mph
SatSep 19100° / 74°SSW 17 mph
SunSep 2085° / 68°N 12 mph
MonSep 2181° / 63°N 8 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.