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Mid-Shore and Blackwater

Talbot, Caroline and Dorchester: the Choptank and the Blackwater marsh, the heart of the Eastern Shore. Blackwater is one of the chief Atlantic Flyway wintering grounds for Canada geese.

2.6

Stable / Staging

Pre-Season, Birds Still North

High confidence→ 0.0 last 24hGreen-winged Teal 4.1

Pintails score, conditions as of Tue, Nov 3, 9:00 PM

Mid-Shore and Blackwater

2.6

Warming 6° vs yesterday

Legal light 5:03 AMSunrise 5:33 AMSunset 4:03 PM🌗 Last quarter · 40%

5AM4SE · 44°
6AM4ESE · 44°
7AM2ENE · 47°
8AM2SE · 56°
9AM6S · 63°
10AM8S · 67°
11AM8SSW · 70°
6.4Decoy score · ToughNear-calm morning: birds will circle high and look hard · Midweek rest: birds have settled since the weekend crowds

Best window: Legal light (5:03 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

Corn harvest roughly 91% complete, heavy field feed available

Season dates · Eastern Zone October 10-17, November 14-27, and December 15, 2026 to January 30, 2027. Western Zone October 3-17, November 21-27, and December 15, 2026 to January 30, 2027.

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with Maryland DNR.

Ponds and creeks: OpenTidal marsh and guts: OpenThe open Bay and rivers: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last 6 days, counting the next 2 at half (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Water on the landscape is in decent shape (17% of Maryland in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Corn harvest roughly 91% complete, heavy field feed available
  • A warming trend is settling birds in place
  • Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet

Poor

Corn harvest roughly 91% complete, heavy field feed available. A warming trend is settling birds in place. Strongest window: Tue into Wed.

Pintails
2.6Tue32.6Wed4

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend18% weight
1.0

Warming ~8°F, no push trigger

Wind direction + speed16% weight
4.0

Light or variable winds

Freeze north of region18% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream11% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding11% weight
9.0

Waters open, birds can stay and feed

Season timing16% weight
0.6

Outside the main migration window

Crop harvest / field feed9% weight
7.9

Corn ~91%, beans ~59% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports0% weight
5.0

No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

55°Fnow
SSE 6 mphwind
↑ 6°next 24h, rising
DayHi / LoWindSnow
TueNov 371° / 43°S 8 mph
WedNov 474° / 50°S 12 mph
ThuNov 574° / 61°S 13 mph
FriNov 667° / 56°SSW 15 mph
SatNov 757° / 48°WNW 15 mph
SunNov 857° / 48°WNW 17 mph
MonNov 961° / 47°WNW 13 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.