North Delta

Tunica cutoff, Moon Lake and the Coldwater bottoms down through Quitman. First Mississippi ground a bird crosses coming off the Arkansas side.

2.4

Stable / Staging

Pre-Season, Birds Still North

High confidence→ 0.0 last 24hPintails 2.7

Mallards score, conditions as of Tue, Sep 15, 12:00 PM

Tomorrow's Hunt · Wednesday, Sep 16

North Delta

2.4

Steady temps

Legal light 6:16 AMSunrise 6:46 AMSunset 7:09 PM🌒 Waxing crescent · 23%

5AM5SSE · 77°

6AM4SE · 75°

7AM4SE · 75°

8AM4SSE · 79°

9AM6SSE · 85°

10AM7SSE · 90°

11AM8SSE · 95°

5.9Decoy score · ToughNear-calm morning: birds will circle high and look hard · Bluebird sky: expect wary, high birds · Midweek rest: birds have settled since the weekend crowds

Best window: Legal light (6:16 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the mallard numbers here this time of year

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with Mississippi Wildlife, Fisheries and Parks.

Water Status

Flooded fields and sheet water: OpenBrakes, oxbows and green timber: OpenReservoirs, the river and the coast: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last two weeks (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Water on the landscape is in decent shape (0% of Mississippi in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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Why this score is moving

Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the mallard numbers here this time of year
Corn harvest roughly 87% complete, heavy field feed available
Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet

48-Hour Outlook

Poor

Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the mallard numbers here this time of year. Corn harvest roughly 87% complete, heavy field feed available. Strongest window: Tue into Wed.

14-Day Score Outlook

Mallards

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

Inside the model

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend16% weight

1.0

Warming ~6°F, no push trigger

Wind direction + speed14% weight

4.0

Light or variable winds

Freeze north of region16% weight

1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream10% weight

1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding10% weight

9.0

Waters open, birds can stay and feed

Season timing14% weight

0.4

Outside the main migration window

Crop harvest / field feed8% weight

4.8

Corn ~87%, beans ~36% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports12% weight

5.0

No recent hunter reports in this region

North of you

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

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Radar check

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

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Local conditions

96°Fnow

SSW 9 mphwind

↑ 3°next 24h, rising

Day	Hi / Lo	Wind
TueSep 15	99° / 74°	SSE 9 mph
WedSep 16	100° / 75°	SSE 10 mph
ThuSep 17	99° / 76°	SSE 10 mph
FriSep 18	101° / 77°	S 12 mph
SatSep 19	103° / 77°	S 9 mph
SunSep 20	101° / 76°	SSE 14 mph
MonSep 21	100° / 73°	S 13 mph

Hunter intel

Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.

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