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Cape Fear Coast

Onslow, Pender, New Hanover and Brunswick: Holly Shelter, the Cape Fear river swamps and the White Oak marsh. The one stretch of the coast with a real lunar tide.

4.8

Stable / Staging

Stable Birds / Staging

Low confidence→ 0.0 last 24hGreen-winged Teal 3.8

Wood Ducks score, conditions as of Tue, Nov 3, 8:00 PM

Cape Fear Coast

4.8

Warming 4° vs yesterday

Legal light 5:03 AMSunrise 5:33 AMSunset 4:17 PM🌗 Last quarter · 40%

5AM3NNE · 55°
6AM4NNE · 55°
7AM5NE · 60°
8AM5NE · 65°
9AM7NE · 70°
10AM8ENE · 73°
11AM9ENE · 76°
6.2Decoy score · ToughBluebird sky: expect wary, high birds · Midweek rest: birds have settled since the weekend crowds

Best window: Legal light (5:03 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

Corn harvest roughly 98% complete, heavy field feed available

  • Dry fall: birds concentrated on remaining water

Season dates · Inland Duck Zone (west of I-95) October 15-17, November 7-28, and December 18, 2026 to January 30, 2027. Coastal Duck Zone (east of I-95) October 23-24, November 7-28, and December 17, 2026 to January 30, 2027. Youth and veteran days December 5, 2026 and February 6, 2027.

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with NC Wildlife.

Ponds, swamps and impoundments: OpenMarsh, creeks and canals: OpenThe open sounds and big lakes: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last 6 days, counting the next 2 at half (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Dry fall: birds concentrated on remaining water (62% of North Carolina in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Corn harvest roughly 98% complete, heavy field feed available
  • A warming trend is settling birds in place

Fair

Corn harvest roughly 98% complete, heavy field feed available. A warming trend is settling birds in place. Strongest window: Thu into Fri.

Wood Ducks
4.8Tue34.9Wed4

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend29% weight
1.0

Warming ~6°F, no push trigger

Wind direction + speed15% weight
4.0

Light or variable winds

Freeze north of region9% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream3% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding22% weight
8.2

62% of the state in drought: less water, and birds stacked on what is left

Season timing20% weight
9.0

Inside the prime migration window

Crop harvest / field feed2% weight
7.4

Corn ~98%, beans ~44% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports0% weight
5.0

No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

63°Fnow
ENE 4 mphwind
↑ 2°next 24h, rising
DayHi / LoWindSnow
TueNov 377° / 55°ENE 9 mph
WedNov 478° / 59°ESE 10 mph
ThuNov 581° / 62°SSE 9 mph
FriNov 678° / 64°S 12 mph
SatNov 770° / 47°NNW 10 mph
SunNov 864° / 43°NNW 8 mph
MonNov 969° / 45°WSW 5 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.