Lower Eastern Shore Duck Migration Forecast

Where Lower Eastern Shore is

Lower Eastern Shore is drawn from 2 counties in Maryland: Somerset and Wicomico. Those are the counties its shape on the DuckCast map is built from, so a hunter in any of them reads this region’s score.

When Lower Eastern Shore peaks

DuckCast’s season model puts the mallard peak here around mid January. The timing follows the statewide curve; what differs here is how many birds the model expects, below. That is a modelled typical curve, not a prediction for any single year. The actual push depends on cold fronts and freeze-up upstream, which is what the daily score tracks. Always confirm season dates with the state wildlife agency, linked below.

Which birds the model expects in Lower Eastern Shore

In DuckCast’s season model, the species that can score highest in Lower Eastern Shore are mallards, Canada geese and green-winged teal. Against the state as a whole, it expects fewer snow geese, wood ducks and Canada geese in Lower Eastern Shore.

Those weights come from harvest records, survey counts and the kind of water, not from a count taken here each season. They cap how high each species’ score can climb; the weather still has to bring the birds.

What DuckCast watches upstream of Lower Eastern Shore

6 upstream stations feed this region's freeze line, nearest first: Harrisburg, PA, about 155 miles northwest, Wilkes-Barre, PA, about 210 miles north, Binghamton, NY, about 265 miles north, Montezuma, NY, about 330 miles north, Cape Vincent, NY, about 410 miles north and Missisquoi, VT, about 485 miles north. When those stations ice over, the score here starts climbing before anything changes in the local sky.

Radar over Lower Eastern Shore

Each morning DuckCast reads the night’s NEXRAD data from KDOX, the National Weather Service radar at Dover, about 45 miles north of the region’s weather point. That puts the radar just outside the region, near enough to see birds lifting off and passing close by. Radar sees every bird in the air, not only ducks, so it confirms or questions the score rather than moving it.

Locations stay generalized

Hunter reports for Lower Eastern Shore are always shown at the region level. DuckCast never collects or displays exact coordinates, so filing a report here never burns a spot.