Mid-Shore and Blackwater Duck Migration Forecast

Where Mid-Shore and Blackwater is

Mid-Shore and Blackwater is drawn from 3 counties in Maryland: Caroline, Dorchester and Talbot. Those are the counties its shape on the DuckCast map is built from, so a hunter in any of them reads this region’s score.

When Mid-Shore and Blackwater peaks

DuckCast’s season model puts the mallard peak here around early January. Mid-Shore and Blackwater carries its own mallard timing rather than the statewide curve, because the season here runs on a different clock from the rest of the state. That is a modelled typical curve, not a prediction for any single year. The actual push depends on cold fronts and freeze-up upstream, which is what the daily score tracks. Always confirm season dates with the state wildlife agency, linked below.

Which birds the model expects in Mid-Shore and Blackwater

In DuckCast’s season model, the species that can score highest in Mid-Shore and Blackwater are mallards, Canada geese and green-winged teal. Against the state as a whole, it expects more pintails in Mid-Shore and Blackwater.

Those weights come from harvest records, survey counts and the kind of water, not from a count taken here each season. They cap how high each species’ score can climb; the weather still has to bring the birds.

What DuckCast watches upstream of Mid-Shore and Blackwater

6 upstream stations feed this region's freeze line, nearest first: Harrisburg, PA, about 120 miles northwest, Wilkes-Barre, PA, about 175 miles north, Binghamton, NY, about 235 miles north, Montezuma, NY, about 300 miles north, Cape Vincent, NY, about 375 miles north and Missisquoi, VT, about 455 miles north. When those stations ice over, the score here starts climbing before anything changes in the local sky.

Radar over Mid-Shore and Blackwater

Each morning DuckCast reads the night’s NEXRAD data from KDOX, the National Weather Service radar at Dover, about 30 miles east of the region’s weather point. That is close enough for the radar to sample the air over the region itself. Radar sees every bird in the air, not only ducks, so it confirms or questions the score rather than moving it.

Locations stay generalized

Hunter reports for Mid-Shore and Blackwater are always shown at the region level. DuckCast never collects or displays exact coordinates, so filing a report here never burns a spot.