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Central

Keystone, Arcadia and the Deep Fork bottoms through the middle of the state. Hunted hard because the population is here.

2.6

Stable / Staging

Pre-Season, Birds Still North

High confidence 0.0 last 24hPintails 3.3

Green-winged Teal score, conditions as of Tue, Sep 15, 1:00 PM

Central

2.4

Steady temps

Legal light 6:43 AMSunrise 7:13 AMSunset 7:37 PM🌒 Waxing crescent · 23%

5AM7SSW · 79°
6AM9S · 79°
7AM6SSW · 78°
8AM8S · 79°
9AM11SSW · 83°
10AM10SSW · 88°
11AM10SSW · 93°
6.6Decoy score · WorkableBluebird sky: expect wary, high birds · Midweek rest: birds have settled since the weekend crowds

Best window: Legal light (6:43 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the green-winged teal numbers here this time of year

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with Oklahoma Wildlife Conservation.

Flooded fields and playas: OpenCreeks, sloughs and timber: OpenThe big reservoirs and rivers: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last two weeks (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Water on the landscape is in decent shape (0% of Oklahoma in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the green-winged teal numbers here this time of year
  • Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet

Poor

Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the green-winged teal numbers here this time of year. Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet. Strongest window: Tue into Wed.

Green-winged Teal
2.4Tue152.4Wed162.3Thu172.4Fri182.4Sat192.7Sun202.7Mon212.4Tue222.2Wed232.8Thu242.4Fri252.8Sat262.8Sun272.8Mon28

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend16% weight
2.8

Temps falling ~2°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed14% weight
4.0

Light or variable winds

Freeze north of region16% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream10% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding10% weight
9.0

Waters open, birds can stay and feed

Season timing14% weight
0.6

Outside the main migration window

Crop harvest / field feed8% weight
5.6

Corn ~65%, beans ~4% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports12% weight
5.0

No recent hunter reports in this region

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

95°Fnow
SSW 17 mphwind
2°next 24h, rising
DayHi / LoWindSnow
TueSep 1598° / 78°S 18 mph
WedSep 1699° / 78°SSW 13 mph
ThuSep 17100° / 78°SSW 15 mph
FriSep 18100° / 77°S 15 mph
SatSep 19101° / 75°SSW 19 mph
SunSep 20101° / 70°SSW 16 mph
MonSep 2196° / 67°SE 11 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.