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West Central North Dakota

Rolling prairie south of Lake Sakakawea. Stock dams and small potholes; wind-driven hunts.

4.0

Stable / Staging

Stable Birds / Staging

Moderate confidence 0.0 last 24hPintails 4.6

Mallards score, conditions as of Tue, Sep 15, 11:00 AM

West Central North Dakota

2.6

Warming 5° vs yesterday

Legal light 6:59 AMSunrise 7:29 AMSunset 8:03 PM🌒 Waxing crescent · 23%

5AM10ESE · 46°
6AM12ESE · 47°
7AM12ESE · 48°
8AM13ESE · 48°
9AM17SE · 52°
10AM19SE · 57°
11AM20SSE · 63°
7.5Decoy score · WorkableWorking wind: 15 mph through the morning · Falling pressure: birds feed hard ahead of weather · Midweek rest: birds have settled since the weekend crowds

Best window: Legal light (6:59 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

Northwest winds building to 22 mph

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with ND Game and Fish.

Sheet water: OpenPotholes: OpenBig water: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last two weeks (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Water on the landscape is in decent shape (0% of North Dakota in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Northwest winds building to 22 mph

Poor

Northwest winds building to 22 mph. Strongest window: Tue into Wed.

Mallards
4.1Tue152.6Wed163.5Thu172.3Fri183.4Sat193.3Sun202.5Mon212.9Tue224.1Wed232.4Thu242.7Fri252.8Sat265.4Sun275.6Mon28

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend16% weight
2.5

Temps falling ~1°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed14% weight
8.6

NW winds to 22 mph across 12 of the next 48h

Freeze north of region16% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream10% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding10% weight
9.0

Waters open, birds can stay and feed

Season timing14% weight
2.1

Outside the main migration window

Crop harvest / field feed8% weight
3.0

Corn ~0%, beans ~0% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports12% weight
5.0

No recent hunter reports in this region

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

55°Fnow
NW 16 mphwind
8°next 24h, rising
DayHi / LoWindSnow
TueSep 1565° / 51°NW 25 mph
WedSep 1679° / 46°ESE 22 mph
ThuSep 1770° / 44°ESE 14 mph
FriSep 1872° / 58°SE 13 mph
SatSep 1966° / 56°SE 10 mph
SunSep 2060° / 56°E 7 mph
MonSep 2170° / 54°SE 12 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.